Carbon credit demand is shifting towards quality
Climate Impact Partners' 2026 market outlook reports that voluntary carbon credit retirements rose by 9% in 2025 compared with 2024, reaching 211 million tonnes across 16 carbon standards, even as headline market growth slowed.
The more significant change is in credit quality. Buyers are increasingly prioritising high-integrity credits over volume. Credits tagged under the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market's Core Carbon Principles more than doubled their share of retirements, rising from 3% to 7%. Credits rated BBB or higher also increased from 28% to 34% of rated volumes.
Compliance-linked credits grew strongly, supported by regulated carbon schemes in jurisdictions including California and Colombia. Meanwhile, renewable energy credit retirements declined as buyers diversified into forestry, industrial waste and engineered carbon removal projects.
Limited supply could increase competition
Retirements of top-rated credits have exceeded new issuances every year since 2022. The report expects this supply-demand imbalance to place upward pressure on prices and intensify competition for forward supply contracts.
Policy developments may reinforce this trend. The Science Based Targets initiative's new Net Zero Standard formally incorporates carbon credits into corporate net-zero pathways, potentially creating new near-term demand alongside longer-term purchasing commitments.
Growing demand for carbon market specialists
The market's shift from volume towards integrity is likely to support continued growth in specialist roles. These include carbon accounting, measurement, reporting and verification, commonly known as MRV, as well as credit-quality assessment and assurance.
As buyers apply greater scrutiny to carbon credits, organisations will need professionals who can evaluate projects, substantiate environmental claims and navigate evolving standards.
Source: Climate Impact Partners — Market Outlook 2026: Why the Carbon Market Is Positioned for Growth
Published: 30 January 2026
