Emerging threats to ecosystems and food security
UNEP-WCMC's 2026 Global Horizon Scan, published in Trends in Ecology & Evolution, identifies 15 emerging issues expected to shape biodiversity conservation over the coming decade.
Among the biophysical risks, the scan highlights declining soil moisture as a growing threat to terrestrial ecosystems and food security. It also identifies ocean darkening, caused by reduced light penetration in marine waters, and the loss of macroalgal habitats such as kelp forests as warming accelerates.
The scan also points to potential structural changes in economic and food systems. These include new forest-finance mechanisms, such as the Tropical Forests Forever Facility, and the possibility that appetite-suppressing pharmaceuticals could reshape demand for land-intensive food production.
Technology could transform biodiversity monitoring
The report highlights low-power TinyML devices and optical AI chips that could support real-time, remote biodiversity monitoring with minimal energy use and connectivity requirements. The growing use of digital twins could also influence how conservation projects are modelled and planned.
Other emerging risks include deep-sea mining, changes in the Southern Ocean and the biodiversity effects of undersea fibre-optic cable networks.
Nature protection as a development priority
UNEP-WCMC frames the findings through its Nature for Development initiative, which positions nature protection as a central part of development planning rather than a separate environmental concern.
This shift is likely to increase demand for expertise in ecological monitoring, environmental data science, conservation technology and nature-finance structuring.
Source: UNEP-WCMC — What's next for biodiversity conservation? Insights from the 2026 Horizon Scan
Published: January 2026
